This is How the world will look after Coronavirus

In recent weeks, the rapid spread of coronavirus in all parts of the globe has disrupted life in many cities, closed markets, disrupted travel and harmed the world economy, and highlighted the efficiency of governments and other failures.

Foreign Policy magazine finds that the Corona pandemic, like articulated events in history such as the fall of the Berlin Wall or the collapse of Lehman Brothers, is a devastating global event that is difficult to imagine in the long run.

In an effort to reveal the features of the world order after the Corona pandemic receded, the newspaper published the expectations of 12 prominent scientists and thinkers from different parts of the world, here are the five most prominent of them:

A world less open and less free

Scientist Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, sees that the Corona pandemic will contribute to strengthening the country and promoting patriotism, and that governments around the world will adopt emergency measures to manage the crisis of an epidemic, but many of these governments will not want to abandon the new powers When the crisis ends.

He also expected the spread of the epidemic to accelerate the transition of power and influence from the West to the East, as evidenced by the response of eastern countries to face the disease, such as South Korea and Singapore, better than European countries and the United States of America, and that China’s handling of the epidemic was good despite its initial stumbling at Virus discovery. He said that the slow and frustrated response in Europe and America is one of the things that distorted the aura that has long surrounded Western engagement.

According to Walt, the current epidemic will not contribute to changing the prevailing global politics that is marked by conflict, and this is evidenced by the fact that the epidemics that passed on mankind before did not put an end to rivalry between the superpowers and were not the starting point for a new era of global cooperation.

He concluded that the battle against the current epidemic will clear its dust from a less open world, less prosperous and free due to the combination of several factors, including the deadly virus, inappropriate planning and inefficient leaderships, which puts humanity on a path of concern.

The end of globalization

Robin Niblet, president and CEO of Chatham House, known as the UK-based Royal Institute of International Affairs, believes that the Corona virus pandemic may be the straw that broke the back of economic globalization.

Nebelet attributes this to worlds before the outbreak of the epidemic, including American concern about the growing economic and military power of China, which led to a political consensus to separate China from the high-tech of the United States and try to get America’s allies to follow suit.

The growing public and political pressure to cut carbon emissions to protect the environment also raised questions about the reliance of many companies on supply chains from long distances.

According to Nebelet, the “Covid-19” outbreak forced governments, companies and societies to enhance their ability to deal with long periods of self-economic isolation. It is unlikely that, given all of the above, the world will return to the idea of ​​a mutually beneficial globalization that was printed in the early twenty-first century.

China-centered globalization

Another opinion is different from its predecessor on the repercussions of the Corona epidemic on the world economy, according to Kishore Mahbubani, researcher at the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore and author of “Has China Won?” On China’s challenge to American hegemony, the pandemic will not have much impact on global economic trends, but it will accelerate a change that has already begun. It is the transition from US-centered globalization to China-centered globalization.

Mahbubani pointed out that this scenario is likely in light of the American people losing confidence in globalization and international trade, which also sees that free trade agreements have become toxic, whether under the rule of US President Donald Trump or others.

On the other hand, the Chinese have not lost their confidence in globalization and international trade due to several reasons, some of which are due to historical reasons, as Chinese leaders are now well aware that the century of humiliation experienced by China from 1842 to 1949 was the result of its complacency and the futile efforts made by its leaders to cut it off the world.

The openness of China to the world during the past few decades has resulted in an economic boom and enhanced the confidence of the Chinese people in their culture. The Chinese have come to believe in their ability to compete anywhere in the world.

America did not pass the driving test
The Deputy Director-General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Currie Shack, believes that the post-Corona virus world will not see the continued leadership of the United States in the world.

Shack said in her forecasts published by Foreign Policy, that the world will no longer view the United States as an international leader due to the behavior of the US administration that is based on the primacy of narrow self-interests and the gross lack of efficiency of that administration.

She noted that the global impacts of the epidemic could have been mitigated to a large extent through the provision of more information by international organizations early, which would give governments sufficient time to prepare and direct resources to places where they were most needed, and the United States could have played this role Organizing those efforts to demonstrate that her interest is not focused solely on American domestic affairs.

Shack concluded that Washington had failed the test of leadership and that the world had become worse as a result of that failure.

History is written by the victors against Corona
John Allen, director of the Brookings Institution, expected that the victors in the battle against the deadly Corona virus would be able to write history as it is throughout human history.

He said that all countries are suffering from the societal stress caused by the spread of the virus in new and powerful ways, and that the countries that survive thanks to their unique political, economic and health systems, will beat the countries that have produced different and devastating results in their battle against the deadly virus.

Allen pointed out that the view of the outcome of the battle against Corona will range from those who see it as a decisive victory for democracy, pluralism and universal health care, while some will see it as evidence of the obvious benefits of decisive authoritarian rule.

Allen also expected that the international system will be exposed to many pressures due to the virus that has invaded most of the world in recent weeks and led to a decline in economic activity and an increase in tensions between countries, which may lead to instability and widespread conflict within and between some countries